Monday, April 18, 2005

Asian WW?

"Japan and China will likely manage these issues in the short-term; Japan's foreign minister was in Beijing yesterday for talks. But the growing rivalry is only likely to get worse. And that would undermine regional stability - and American interests.
For starters, China might not pressure its ally, North Korea, back to the nuclear negotiating table. Beijing knows well Tokyo's anxiety about Pyongyang's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs.
Second, as political relations with Japan deteriorate, China is likely to accelerate its military buildup, especially its ocean-going navy. This would further ratchet up tensions with Taiwan and Japan - and the U.S., which has defense commitments to both Taipei and Tokyo.
Third, China's belligerence may well force Tokyo and Taipei into each other's embrace, forming a "virtual alliance" against Beijing. This won't settle well with China at all, which considers Taiwan a "renegade province."
Washington should be deeply concerned about the growing Tokyo-Beijing rivalry. The U.S. and China just established a high-level "Global Dialogue," and when they meet, Washington must clearly register its concerns with Beijing about the prospects of Chinese adventurism or miscalculation in the region. The U.S. must also caution China that we will stand behind our Japanese ally."

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